How to vote to boost Tories – and get a strong Brexit

8 Jun

Today, the nation votes in an election in which the polls have narrowed considerably since the beginning of the campaign, when Theresa May enjoyed a lead of more than 20 points.

For that reason, it’s crucial those who want to return a Conservative government should use their votes intelligently to ensure the biggest possible majority.

The Mail's essential tactical voting guide to play the numbers and return the largest possible Tory majority 

The Mail's essential tactical voting guide to play the numbers and return the largest possible Tory majority 

The Mail’s essential tactical voting guide to play the numbers and return the largest possible Tory majority 

Yesterday, we published ROSS CLARK’S guide to tactical voting, and here, as a service to voters, we do so again on polling day.

In most constituencies, by far the best way to ensure that Jeremy Corbyn doesn’t get near Downing Street is simply to vote Conservative.

But where the picture is more complex, there are three ways people can vote tactically to help Mrs May win the strongest mandate to carry into the Brexit negotiations.

These three kinds of tactical voting are set out here.

If the most dramatic polls prove to be correct and there is a possibility of a hung parliament, these are the marginal seats that could make all the difference.

There are three ways people can vote tactically to help Mrs May win the strongest mandate to carry into the Brexit negotiations

There are three ways people can vote tactically to help Mrs May win the strongest mandate to carry into the Brexit negotiations

There are three ways people can vote tactically to help Mrs May win the strongest mandate to carry into the Brexit negotiations

Labour has strengthened in the polls, to the point at which it is just conceivable — if still unlikely — that we could be waking up to a Jeremy Corbyn premiership on Friday morning

Labour has strengthened in the polls, to the point at which it is just conceivable — if still unlikely — that we could be waking up to a Jeremy Corbyn premiership on Friday morning

Labour has strengthened in the polls, to the point at which it is just conceivable — if still unlikely — that we could be waking up to a Jeremy Corbyn premiership on Friday morning

In eight seats, the Tory candidate has little hope of victory — so the best chance of keeping the Conservatives in power nationally is to vote for a third party in order to deny Labour the seat

In eight seats, the Tory candidate has little hope of victory — so the best chance of keeping the Conservatives in power nationally is to vote for a third party in order to deny Labour the seat

In eight seats, the Tory candidate has little hope of victory — so the best chance of keeping the Conservatives in power nationally is to vote for a third party in order to deny Labour the seat

TACTICAL VOTE ONE: Where UKIP voters should vote Tory 

In the 2015 election, many seats were won by Labour because the naturally conservative vote was divided between the Tories and Ukip. In almost every case, the combined votes for those two parties would have beaten Labour. Listed here are 30 seats where Ukip supporters should vote tactically with the Conservatives to oust a sitting Labour MP — and thus give Theresa May the strongest possible hand to secure the best Brexit deal. 

1. Ashfield

Labour vote in 2015: 19,448

Tory and UKIP COMBINED: 20,778

  • Vote Tony Harper to unseat Gloria De Piero

2. Batley and Spen

Labour: 21,826

Tory and UKIP: 24,849

  • Vote Ann Myatt to defeat Tracy Brabin

3. Birmingham Edgbaston

Labour: 18,518

Tory and UKIP: 19,966

  • Vote Caroline Squire to defeat Preet Gill

4. Birmingham Erdington

Labour: 15,824

Tory and UKIP: 16,735

  • Vote Robert Alden to defeat Harriet Harman’s husband Jack Dromey

5. Bradford South

Labour: 16,328

Tory and UKIP: 18,935

  • Vote Tanya Graham to defeat Judith Cummins

6. Brentford and Isleworth

Labour: 25,096

Tory and UKIP: 27,834

  • Vote Mary Macleod to defeat Ruth Cadbury

7. Bristol East

Labour: 18,148

Tory and UKIP: 21,320

  • Vote Theo Clarke to defeat Kerry McCarthy

8. Bristol South

Labour: 19,505

Tory and UKIP: 20,758

  • Vote Mark Weston to defeat Karin Smyth

9. City of Chester

Labour: 22,118

Tory and UKIP: 26,173

  • Vote Will Gallagher to defeat Chris Matheson

10. Dagenham and Rainham

Labour: 17,830

Tory and UKIP: 23,342

  • Vote Julie Marson to unseat Jon Cruddas

11. Don Valley

Labour: 19,621

Tory and UKIP: 20,699

  • Vote Aaron Bell to unseat Caroline Flint

12. Ealing Central and Acton

Labour: 22,002

Tory and UKIP: 23,654

  • Vote Joy Morrissey to defeat Rupa Huq

13. Enfield North

Labour: 20,172

Tory and UKIP: 23,219

  • Vote Nick de Bois to defeat Joan Ryan

14. Hampstead and Kilburn

Labour: 23,977

Tory and UKIP: 24,371

  • Vote Claire-Louise Leyland to defeat Tulip Siddiq

15. Hartlepool

Labour: 14,076

Tory and UKIP: 19,308

  • Vote Carl Jackson to defeat Mike Hill

16. Heywood and Middleton

Labour: 20,926

Tory and UKIP: 24,895

  • Vote Chris Clarkson to defeat Liz McInnes

17. Hove

Labour: 22,082

Tory and UKIP: 24,111

  • Vote Kristy Adams to defeat Peter Kyle

18. Mansfield

Labour: 18,603

Tory and UKIP: 25,138

  • Vote Ben Bradley to defeat Alan Meale

19. Oldham East and Saddleworth

Labour: 17,529

Tory and UKIP: 20,084

  • Vote Kashif Ali to defeat Debbie Abrahams

20. Penistone and Stocksbridge

Labour: 19,691

Tory and UKIP: 23,706

  • Vote Nicola Wilson to defeat Angela Smith

21. Rother Valley

Labour: 20,501

Tory and UKIP: 24,147

  • Vote Bethan Eddy to defeat Sir Kevin Barron

22. Sedgefield

Labour: 18,275

Tory and UKIP: 17,858

  • Vote Dehenna Davison to defeat Phil Wilson

23. Southampton Test

Labour: 18,017

Tory and UKIP: 19,773

  • Vote Paul Holmes to defeat Alan Whitehead

24. Stalybridge and Hyde

Labour: 18,447

Tory and UKIP: 19,481

  • Vote Tom Dowse to defeat Jonathan Reynolds

25. Stoke on Trent Central

Labour: 12,220

Tory and UKIP: 14,049

  • Vote Daniel Jellyman to unseat recent by-election winner Gareth Snell

26. Walsall South

Labour: 19,740

Tory and UKIP: 20,273

  • Vote James Bird to defeat Valerie Vaz

27. West Bromwich west

Labour: 16,578

Tory and UKIP: 17,201

  • Vote Andrew Hardie to defeat Adrian Bailey

28. Wirral West

Labour: 18,898

Tory and UKIP: 21,253

  • Vote Tony Caldeira to defeat Margaret Greenwood

29. Wolverhampton North East

Labour: 15,669

Tory and UKIP: 16,698

  • Vote Sarah Macken to defeat Emma Reynolds

30. Worsley and Eccles South

Labour: 18,600

Tory and UKIP: 20,342

  • Vote Iain Lindley to defeat Barbara Keeley

TACTICAL VOTE TWO: Where Labour-supporting Brexiteers should vote Tory to ensure a strong Brexit 

Many Labour supporters who voted Leave must despair at the prospect of Jeremy Corbyn negotiating Brexit. Here are 37 Labour-held seats with a majority of less than 5,000, and where more than 50 per cent of people voted Leave. Labour voters who also voted Leave should support the Tories here to ensure a strong Brexit is delivered. Those who voted Ukip should also vote Tory in these areas.

31. Alyn and Deeside

Labour majority: 3,343

Leave vote: 58pc

  • Vote Laura Knightly to defeat Mark Tami

32. Barrow-in-Furness

Labour majority: 795

Leave vote: 57.2pc

  • Vote Simon Fell to defeat John Woodcock

33. Birmingham Northfield

Labour majority: 2,509

Leave vote: 61.8pc

  • Vote Meg Powell-Chandler to defeat Richard Burden

34. Bishop Auckland

Labour majority: 3,508

Leave vote: 60.9pc

  • Vote Christopher Adams to defeat Helen Goodman

35. Blackpool South

Labour majority: 2,585

Leave vote: 67.8pc

  • Vote Peter Anthony to defeat Gordon Marsden

36. Bolton North East

Labour majority: 4,377

Leave vote: 58.1pc

  • Vote James Daly to defeat David Crausby

37. Bridgend

Labour majority: 1,927

Leave vote: 50.2pc

  • Vote Karen Robson to defeat Madeleine Moon

38. Bury South

Labour majority: 4,922

Leave vote: 54.5pc

  • Vote Robert Largan to unseat Ivan Lewis

39. Chorley

Labour majority: 4,530

Leave vote: 56.7pc

  • Vote Caroline Moon to defeat Lindsay Hoyle

40. Clwyd South

Labour majority: 2,402

Leave vote: 59.8pc

  • Vote Simon Baynes to defeat Susan Elan Jones

41. Copeland

Labour majority: 2,564

Leave vote: 59.1pc

  • Vote Trudy Harrison to defeat Gillian Troughton

42. Coventry North West

Labour majority: 4,509

Leave vote: 58.3pc

  • Vote Resham Kotecha to unseat Geoffrey Robinson

43. Coventry South

Labour majority: 3,188

Leave vote: 50.3pc

  • Vote Michelle Lowe to defeat James Cunningham

44. Darlington

Labour majority: 3,158

Leave vote: 58.1pc

  • Vote Peter Cuthbertson to defeat Jenny Chapman

45. Delyn

Labour majority: 2,930

Leave vote: 54.4pc

  • Vote Matt Wright to defeat David Hanson

46. Dewsbury

Labour majority: 1,451

Leave vote: 57.1pc

  • Vote Beth Prescott to defeat Paula Sherriff

47. Dudley North

Labour majority: 4,181

Leave vote: 71.4pc

  • Vote Les Jones to unseat Ian Austin

48. Eltham

Labour majority: 2,693

Leave vote: 51.8pc

  • Vote Matt Hartley to defeat Clive Efford

49. Gedling

Labour majority: 2,686

Leave vote: 56.3pc

  • Vote Carolyn Abbott to unseat Vernon Coaker

50. Great Grimsby

Labour majority: 4,540

Leave vote: 71.4pc

  • Vote Jo Gideon to beat Melanie Onn

51. Halifax

Labour majority: 428

Leave vote: 58.8pc

  • Vote Chris Pearson to defeat Molly Lynch

52. Hyndburn

Labour majority: 4,400

Leave vote: 65.8pc

  • Vote Kevin Horkin to defeat Graham Jones

53. Ilford North

Labour majority: 589

Leave vote: 53.3pc

  • Vote Lee Scott to unseat Wes Streeting

54. Lancaster and Fleetwood

Labour majority: 1,265

Leave vote: 51.9pc

  • Vote Eric Ollerenshaw to reclaim his seat from Cat Smith

55. Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East

Labour majority: 2,268

Leave vote: 65.3pc

  • Vote Simon Clarke to defeat Tracy Harvey

56. Newcastle-under-Lyme

Labour majority: 650

Leave vote: 61.6pc

  • Vote Owen Meredith to unseat Paul Farrelly

57. Newport East

Labour majority: 4,705

Leave vote: 59.3pc

  • Vote Natasha Asghar to defeat Jessica Morden

58. Newport West

Labour majority: 3,510

Leave vote: 53.6pc

  • Vote Angela Jones-Evans to unseat Paul Flynn

59. North East Derbyshire

Labour majority: 1,883

Leave vote: 62.1pc

  • Vote Lee Rowley to defeat Natascha Engel

60. Scunthorpe

Labour majority: 3,134

Leave vote: 68.6 pc

  • Vote Holly Mumby-Croft to defeat Nic Dakin

61. Stoke on Trent North

Labour majority: 4,836

Leave vote: 72.1pc

  • Vote Ben Adams to defeat Ruth Smeeth

62. Stoke on Trent South

Labour majority: 2,539

Leave vote: 71.1pc

  • Vote Jack Brereton to defeat Rob Flello

63. Wakefield

Labour majority: 2,613

Leave vote: 62.7pc

  • Vote Antony Calvert to defeat Mary Creagh

64. Walsall North

Labour majority: 1,937

Leave vote: 74.2pc

  • Vote Eddie Hughes to unseat veteran Labour MP David Winnick

65. Wolverhampton South West

Labour majority: 801

Leave vote: 54.3pc

  • Vote Paul Uppal to defeat Eleanor Smith

66. Workington

Labour majority: 4,686

Leave vote: 61.0pc

  • Vote Clark Vasey to defeat Sue Hayman

67. Wrexham

Labour majority: 1,831

Leave vote: 57.5pc

  • Vote Laura Knightly to defeat Mark Tami

TACTICAL VOTE THREE: Where Tory supporters should hold their noses and vote for a minority party to keep Labour out 

In these eight seats, the Tory candidate has little hope of victory — so the best chance of keeping the Conservatives in power nationally is to vote for a third party in order to deny Labour the seat. Here’s how…

VOTE LIB DEM IN …

68. Sheffield Hallam

Many Tory voters will have mixed feelings about the Coalition years — and Nick Clegg in particular. Yet there is little doubt that voting for him in his Sheffield seat is the best way to deny Labour a ‘gain’ here. In 2015, Clegg won with a reduced majority of 2,353. The Tory candidate was a long way behind. (2015: LD 22,215, Lab 19,862, Con 7,544).

69. Cambridge

The city is the 17th most marginal seat in the country but there is little chance of the Tories prevailing here. Labour’s Daniel Zeichner has a majority of just 599, with former Lib Dem MP Julian Huppert best-placed to defeat him. (2015: Lab 18,646, LD 18,047, Con 8,117).

70. Burnley

The Lancashire mill town is not natural Conservative territory but the Lib Dems’ Gordon Birtwistle does have a chance of unseating Labour’s Julie Cooper — with help from voters who plumped for the Tories last time. (2015: Lab 14,951, LD 11,707, Con 5,374).

71. Bermondsey and Old Southwark

This southerly flank of Central London, scene of Saturday’s terror attack, isn’t going to turn blue in a hurry but Tory voters can help Lib Dem Simon Hughes unseat Labour and win back the seat. (2015: Lab 22,146, LD 17,657, Con 6,051).

72. Cardiff Central

The River Taff will run dry before the Tories win Cardiff Central, but there is a prospect that Lib Dem candidate Eluned Parrott could unseat Labour’s Jo Stevens with a bit of help from the Welsh capital’s diehard Conservatives. (2015: Lab 15,462, LD 10,481, Con 5,674)

VOTE GREEN IN …

73. Bristol West

Given that the Tories came fourth in Bristol West in the last election, they might consider supporting Green candidate Molly Scott Cato in what is her party’s biggest target seat and so help unseat Labour MP Thangam Debbonaire. (2015: Lab 22,900, Green 17,227, LD 12,103, Con 9,752).

VOTE PLAID CYMRU IN …

74. Arfon

Plaid Cymru leader Leanne Wood is not exactly everyone’s cup of tea, but given the impossibility of a Plaid Cymru government in Westminster, Conservative-minded voters might consider lending their vote to Plaid Cymru’s former leader, Hywel Williams, in the Arfon constituency, since Labour, but not the Conservatives, have an outside chance of catching it. (2015: PC 11,790, Lab 8,122, Con 3,521).

75. Ynys Mon

There is a closer battle still just across the Menai Straits where Plaid Cymru’s Ieuan Wyn Jones is just 229 votes away from capturing the seat from Labour’s Albert Owen. A bit of tactical voting here could potentially make the difference between a Labour and Conservative government. (2015: Lab 10,871, PC 10,642, Con 7,393).

No comments yet

Leave a Reply