Can Le Pen beat Macron in the French election, despite losing in the first round?

25 Apr

Experts, however, say this is unlikely – with no sign of low turnout or a surge for Le Pen.

Kantar’s Mr Lecerf said Ms Le Pen would have had more chance of victory in the final round if there had been a low turnout in the first. “That would left a reserve of voters whom she could mobilise for the second round but it didn’t happen as the first-round turnout was high, at nearly 80 per cent.”

He added that if she had come top in the first round, that could have encouraged more voters to back her, but she came second.

A victory for Ms Le Pen would be more likely if she faced “a polarising candidate” in the final round, such as the scandal-tainted Mr Fillon, or the communist-backed Mr Mélenchon.

“Only about one-third of those who voted for Fillon will be tempted to vote for Marine Le Pen in the second round. The rest will vote for Macron or abstain,” Mr Lecerf said.

No comments yet

Leave a Reply