French elections 2017: Polls and odds tracker

6 May

For those who have lost faith in political polling, asking people who are prepared to put their money where their mouth is the best way to predict elections.

After Brexit, the election of Donald Trump and the 2015 General Election, many now believe that political betting markets can better predict elections, relying on the wisdom of a crowd of punters to sort and weigh all the probabilities.

According to Coral, the odds for the next French President are:

  • Emmanual Macron, Independent: 1/9
  • Marine Le Pen, Front National: 11/2

What happened in the first round of the French presidential election?

Marine Le Pen achieved her highest vote shares in the North East of France when she failed to make the second round in 2012.

It was no different this time around with there being a clear East-West divide in the way that the country voted on Sunday.

Le Pen attracted her highest vote share in the department of Aisne, to the North East of Paris. More than one in three votes went to the Front National leader in Aisne – double the number that went to Macron.

However, support for Le Pen within Paris was conspicuous by its absence. Fewer than one in 20 voters cast their ballots for the far-right leader. This is a lower proportion than who did so in 2012. 

Three days on from a terror attack in the capital that claimed the life of a police officer, it makes Paris one of just four areas of the country where Front National support fell compared to 2012.

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