Tories could be on course for 140-seat majority

18 Apr

A recent Yougov poll showed Labour at their worst ever level since they began polling.

Were their results, with the Conservatives holding a 21-point lead over Labour, to be realised, Sky News’ Election Analyst Michael Thrasher suggests this could lead to a 140-seat majority for the Conservatives.

That would be larger than any achieved by Margaret Thatcher, though still less than those won by Tony Blair in 1997 and 2001.

It is of course possible though that a single poll could be an outlier.


Theresa May speaks to the media

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Theresa May statement in full

But even averaging out the results of recent polls, the Conservatives are leading by 42% to 26% for Labour.

UKIP are on 11%, with the Liberal Democrats one behind on 10%.

On a uniform swing, these would suggest a Conservative majority of 96 – with the Conservatives gaining 42 seats and Labour losing 41.

For Labour, this would be the lowest proportion of the vote since 1918 – before they had formed a government.


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Corbyn reacts to May’s election call

In Scotland, the Scottish National Party continue to dominate the polls, but the Conservatives may be set to almost double their vote to become the second biggest party in terms of Westminster votes, ahead of Labour – though this is unlikely to make much of a difference in terms of seats in the current electoral system.

The polls have come in for criticism in recent years, but it is worth bearing in mind that where they have erred, they have tended to overstate support for Labour.

There is still time for things to move, but unless something drastically changes soon, this could be a real landslide for the Conservatives and a bloodbath for Labour.

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